2014 Wrap Up - The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

2014 came with expectations, lots of promises, hopes, wild dreams, and hot pursuits. But for some it was a tale of laughter, tears, dreams torn apart, aims not reached, and for others a journey they never ventured. We at FXTradeCity experienced it all. There were times we got frustrated, and sometimes it was endless joy, however when we look back since the year began, there's a glimpse of smile on our face because every new day promises better things, and so we look forward to a better year ahead. So we gladly give thanks to God Almighty for His Grace, Strength, Provision & Blessings to us and you in the good and bad times.

Despite the turbulence in the market, FXTradeCity experienced a huge growth in its community. We like to say this was possible due to your posts, comments, and suggestions. No matter how strong the storm blew, we never let our dreams die, we stuck to our mission, to provide quality Forex information, assistance, & services for every trader across the globe to achieve financial freedom. We will continue to do this until the market runs dry.

However we had our regrets too. We got our accounts burnt once a while. We experienced challenges beyond the ordinary, which ended as a bitter lesson to us. We couldn't fully support some of our innovative programs like FXTradeCity Forex Signals, Live News Trading Room, and other programs we had in mind this year. We apologize to our teeming fans, and subscribers who waited eagerly for this. We hope to kick start these programs in 2015.

Looking back in 2014, there are some great lessons to learn, and some mistakes to avoid in the coming year. Some of the habits that made 2014 an ugly year for most traders was procrastination, fear, lack of right investment/knowledge, greed, and the major culprit was not using stop loss. Probably some accounts would have scaled through to 2015 if the accounts were protected with stop loss.

As we look forward to 2015, I encourage you to put the past behind, and be determined to do it right this time. Yes you can if you are willing.

Wish you a wonderful and prosperous 2015.


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How I Trade The News - Part 3 Final Series

Image courtesy of Stuart Miles / FreeDigitalPhotos.net
In the previous section, we looked at the materials i use in trading the news and setting up my chart. I also explained some essential steps that helps me get set for the news, and some important market signs to look out prior to the news release.

In this conclusive part I'll clearly explain the trade actions (best pairs to trade), order placement/planning, chart setup, managing the trades and some other tips i use to trade the news. Before we start lets see some pre and after news event in the charts below.

INFO: "To straddle or not to straddle? Which is better? See; Straddling Vs Auto Click Trading System".
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2cGd02M-NmRSE1UTExPLTVtd2M/edit?usp=sharing
Click to enlarge
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2cGd02M-NmRdFlsYm40ZlRTNzQ/edit?usp=sharing
Click to enlarge
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2cGd02M-NmRVmxiRXFuV1VJSVE/edit?usp=sharing
Click to enlarge

Setting Up The Chart
In order to manage my system resources I do not setup every chart with the template above. Some of the items in the template require consistent data download and updates, which is capable of impacting the platform's efficiency during high impact news release. The session time indicator and pivot indicator are proprietary indicators designed by Forex21 (ProFx3.0.5). They are not included in the download link. (Download full chart setup materials: Zip File ).

I recommend 30 Minutes chart. Be very careful trading the news with lower timeframes.

First Thing First - What Pair Should I Trade?
HotForex Gold & SilverA deep understanding of Forex currencies with regards to their correlation, similarities, dominance, and political/economic relevance with other currencies would help you to an extent to know which pairs are best to trade for a particular news release. Also it is common for some currencies to be correlated with commodities & precious metals like Gold and Oil. The simple principle in news trading is that a good or bad economic outlook on a currency would positively or negatively reflect on its pair. For example if the UK CPI meets investors expectation for a particular period then some of the weaker pairs with the British Pound will experience a sudden negative effect because investors (traders) will sell them off and buy the GBP. So traders most often lookout for the stronger and weaker currency pairs to trade, while avoiding correlating pairs.

TIP: There is a utility designed by Henry Liu (www.currencynewstrading.com), which displays the real time economic outlook of currencies. The utility helps to decide which pair should be traded against each other. Download Henry Liu's Currency Strength Meter.

Basic rule of selecting a currency pair:
Auto/Manual News Trading EA
1. In expectation of a positive news outcome, BUY the stronger currency, and SELL the weaker one.
2. In expectation of a negative news outcome, SELL the dominant stronger currency, and BUY a relative stronger one. In some cases the weaker currencies could be bought but the position should not be held for too long.

CAUTION: In some cases we've seen a good
economic outlook on some country's economic data but with an opposite reaction after the news release. This implies that a positive economic outlook of a currency does not mean you have to buy it and sell the weaker currency. It is necessary to consider other fundamental macro economic factors coupled with the recent economic performance history of the currency.
TOOL: Comprehensive list of all the news trading items with the recommended pairs to trade. Recommended Currency Pairs For News Trading

TRADE ACTIONS
Before you begin ensure you've understood pre-news market signs, and market behaviour prior to news release else refer to Part 2. Also you must have selected the right pairs to trade the news.

What Pairs Should I Trade?:
It is extremely important you pick the right pairs for every news trading. The rule of thumb is to pair the stronger/weaker currency pairs. In some cases you can trade certain commodities and precious metals also. For further guidance refer to: Recommended Pairs For News Trading.
 
Snapshot of Henry Liu's Currency Strength Meter

Placing Orders
Generally wait for at least 10 - 15 minutes before placing pending orders. This gives you a clearer picture of the best place to set pending orders. There are various methods i use in placing pending orders depending on the type of news and market initial reaction. Here are the two (2) main methods:

1. If The Market Is Static (i.e no quick up and down irrational movements):
Prior to most high impact news release, the market often times becomes static or move in a very narrow channel. This is one of the best market signs for news trading. In this case I set pending orders manually or with the guide of the Simple_SR Indicator. (For Take Profit, Stop Loss & Trailing Stop see Trade Management).

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2cGd02M-NmRN3Z3alpRaksxMFE/edit?usp=sharing
Illustration of narrow movement of price prior to the news release. Click to enlarge

2. If The Market Is Erratic (i.e. quick up and down small movements few minutes to the news release):
In this case the market reacts to traders psychology/sentiments towards the expectation of the news release. This is witnessed few minutes to the news release with a slow but steady movement of price to a direction and then it halts, goes back and continues again but not cutting across a certain price level or forming a resistance at a certain level. This often occurs when the analysis of the economic news components shows a high probability of an actual outcome. In other words there is a sure tendency by traders that the news outcome would certainly come out as expected. In this scenario it is quite difficult to place pending orders due to the uncertainty of the release, which could turn out with a disappointing result. In most cases if you are not patient and careful, your pending orders would be triggered before the actual time of the news release and this can be very disastrous if the expectation comes out against the triggered order.

Follow the steps below to set pending orders for this kind of scenario:

Step 1: Wait for at least 7 - 10 minutes before the news release to study the pulse of the market. This will help you to determine the immediate highest high and lower lows of the first five to ten candles or more.

Step 2: Place orders a little bit higher or lower than where price formed a resistance or support.

Step 3: Cautiously keep an eye on the fluctuation of the market in order to modify the position so as to avoid your orders getting triggered before the news release.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2cGd02M-NmRR1g3dTluMk13X3c/edit?usp=sharing
GBPUSD - Order Placement Prior to BOE Gov Carney's Speech - 9th Sept, 2014; 11:45am GMT +1. Click to Enlarge

https://www.blogger.com/Order%20Placement%20Prior%20to%20BOE%20Gov%20Carney%27s%20Speech%20-%209th%20Sept,%202014;%2011:45am%20GMT%20+1.%20Click%20to%20Enlarge
GBPJPY - Order Placement Prior to BOE Gov Carney's Speech - 9th Sept, 2014; 11:45am GMT +1. Click to Enlarge

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2cGd02M-NmRQTFfM0VyM3hWUE0/edit?usp=sharing
GBPCAD - Order Placement Prior to BOE Gov Carney's Speech - 9th Sept, 2014; 11:45am GMT +1. Click to Enlarge


How Much Order Should I Place?
HotForex Tight Spread This depends on your money management rules, broker spreads, and account size. You must understand that most brokers increase their spreads during news release. Not all brokers are news friendly so exercise great caution when selecting a broker if you are news trader. Personally in some very few cases i trade large lot sizes because of the certainty of the news release and market signs. However I do not advise you do the same. Ensure you do not trade more than 10% of your account size or free margin. It could be very dangerous.

TIP: To see the effects of lot sizes on news trading, carry out tests with Forex Simulation Tools.

Trade Management (Stop Loss, Take Profit, Reversals, Spikes, e.t.c.)
Ideally stop loss for Sell Stop pending orders should be placed beneath the recent support line or depending on the type of news they can be placed at a safer distance to avoid price fluctuations and and instant reversals that will erroneously hit the stop loss. Often times I have experienced instant price reversals within seconds or few minutes after the news release. This causes the stop loss to some pips above the resistance line as well.

Personally I do not have any fixed rule for Take Profit because I always use Trailing Stops to manage the trades. I recommend using the minimal trailing stop of 30 points & 50 points. 

INFO: An instant spike in a very high impact news release can move the market as far as 30 - 40 pips in few seconds, and then over 100 pips hours later. If you are trading the spike then stick to 20 - 30 pips maximum.



TIP: When a sharp spike occurs there are 80% chances of an instant reversal. In some cases the best time to enter a news trade is during the price reversal (i.e enter in the opposite direction of the reversal).

Trading Press Conference Speeches/Statements
Trading this type of news is quite difficult but very lucrative if you know how to interpret the statements of the speaker. Financial/Economic speeches or reports such as ECB President Speech/Press Conference, US FOMC Statements, BOJ Press Conference, BOE Governor's Speech, e.t.c usually come with very high impact due to the personalities involved, and the effects of their policy statements.

TIP: News speeches are interpreted into Hawkish or Dovish statements. Hawkish statements are aggressive. For example when the authority of a Federal Reserve Bank is bent on favouring an increase in interest rate or showing clear signs of imminent implementation of stimulus then that is a Hawkish Statement. The opposite of this is Dovish.
Since press conferences and speeches is more of an audible conversation you will need the following news services media to conveniently trade them:
  1. News Wire Services: - Reuters, Associated Press, Agence France Presse, BNO News, Deutsche Presse-Agentur, All Headline News, United Press International, e.t.c
  2. Satellite Cable Network Services (Business News): - CNBC, Bloomberg Television  Fox Business Network, MSNBC, e.t.c.
  3. Radio: - RANSquawk.com, FXMMradio, e.t.c.
Personally i most often do not hook up with them except for CNBC Squawk on Television. I use either of the news trading methods to trade news speeches.

Documentation
It is a good practice to document your trades by leaving comments. This helps to analyze your performance on your trade journals. 
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2cGd02M-NmRZjNRbEJDRVA5QlE/edit?usp=sharing
Click to enlarge

Other Tips & Guidelines
  1. Cancel or delete pending orders immediately if a conflicting release comes out. 
  2. Do not setup your trades 20 minutes or more before the news release.
  3. If you have an existing position on the currency you wish to trade the news, either adjust the stop loss or close the position before the news release.
  4. In most cases orders cannot be manually modified or entered 1 - 2 minutes before the news release. In fact it is suicidal. Only automated (EA) systems have the capability to do so but not all the time due to platform hangs and server overloads.
  5. Avoid using too tight stop loss.
  6. Ensure that you have taken care of all physical distractions prior to trading the news.
  7. Consult news expert pre-analysis and match it with your decisions before trading the news.

We've finally come to the conclusive part of this series. Feel free to leave your comments, inquiries and suggestions.

Happy Trading.



List of Recommended Pairs For Forex News Trading


GUIDELINES: The recommended pairs were derived from the historical behavioral pattern of currency pairs during news release taking into consideration the economy outlook of the strength and weakness of the pairs. 

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To trade the news e.g. US NFP, I would pair the (USD) with any of the recommended pairs like NZD, GBP or JPY. I strongly advise trading against the weaker pairs for anticipated positive outcome on the major currencies, and counter/opposite or middle/stronger pairs for anticipated negative outcome. For more guidelines: See the article on How I Trade The News Part 1, 2 & 3

Please see risk disclaimer notice below before applying any of these recommendations.

Type in the box below to Find or Filter news in the table



S/N COUNTRY NEWS RECOMMENDED PAIRS
1Australia (AUD)Building ApprovalsUSD, JPY, CHF, NZD
2Australia (AUD)Retail Sales m/mUSD, JPY, CAD, CHF, NZD
3Australia (AUD)Employment ChangeUSD, CAD, JPY, EUR, NZD
4Australia (AUD)Unemployment RateUSD, CAD, JPY, EUR, NZD
5Australia (AUD)CPI q/qUSD, CAD, JPY, EUR, NZD
6Australia (AUD)RBNZ Rate StatementUSD, JPY, NZD, CAD
7Australia (AUD)PPI q/qUSD, JPY
8Australia (AUD)RBA Rate StatementUSD, JPY, EUR, CAD
9Australia (AUD)Trade BalanceUSD, CAD, JPY
10Canada (CAD)Trade BalanceUSD, GBP, JPY, EUR
11Canada (CAD)Ivey PMIUSD, GBP, JPY, EUR
12Canada (CAD)Building PermitsUSD, GBP, JPY
13Canada (CAD)Employment ChangeUSD, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD
14Canada (CAD)Unemployment RateUSD, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD
15Canada (CAD)Manufacturing Sales m/mUSD, GBP, JPY
16Canada (CAD)Bank of Canada (BOC) Monetary Policy ReportUSD, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD
17Canada (CAD)Bank of Canada (BOC) Rate StatementUSD, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD
18Canada (CAD)Bank of Canada (BOC) Press ConferenceUSD, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD
19Canada (CAD)Core Retail Sales m/mUSD, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD
20Canada (CAD)Retail Sales m/mUSD, GBP, JPY
21Canada (CAD)Core CPI m/mUSD, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD
22Canada (CAD)GDP m/mUSD, JPY, GBP, EUR, AUD
23China (CNY)Manufacturing PMIUSD, GBP, EUR, CAD
24China (CNY)CPI y/yUSD, GBP, CHF, EUR, CAD
25China (CNY)PPI y/yUSD, GBP, CHF
26China (CNY)Trade BalanceUSD, GBP, EUR
27China (CNY)GDP q/qUSD, GBP, CAD, CHF, AUD
28China (CNY)HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMIUSD, GBP, EUR, CAD
29Euro (EUR)French Flash Manufacturing PMIUSD, GBP, JPY
30Euro Zone (EUR)CPI Flash Estimate y/yUSD, GBP, JPY, CAD
31Euro Zone (EUR)Core CPI Flash Estimate y/yUSD, GBP
32Euro Zone (EUR)Retail Sales m/mUSD, GBP, JPY, CAD
33Euro Zone (EUR)Unemployment RateUSD, GBP, JPY, AUD, CAD
34Euro Zone (EUR)ECB Press ConferenceUSD, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD, GOLD, CHF
35Euro Zone (EUR)ECB President Draghi SpeaksUSD, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD, GOLD
36France (CHF)CPI m/mUSD, JPY, GBP, CAD
37German States (EUR)German Prelim CPI m/mUSD, GBP, JPY, AUD, CAD
38Germany (EUR)German Retail Sales m/mUSD, GBP, JPY, CAD
39Germany (EUR)German ZEW Economic SentimentUSD, GBP, JPY, CAD
40Germany (EUR)German Flash Manufacturing PMIUSD, GBP, JPY
41Japan (JPY)Monetary Policy StatementUSD, GBP, EUR
42Japan (JPY)Bank of Japan (BOJ) Press ConferenceUSD, GBP, EUR, CAD
43New Zealand (NZD)CPI q/qUSD, JPY, AUD, CHF
44New Zealand (NZD)Trade BalanceUSD, JPY, CHF, AUD
45New Zealand (NZD)Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor SpeechUSD, JPY, CHF
46New Zealand (NZD)Employment Change q/qUSD, JPY, CHF, AUD
47New Zealand (NZD)Unemployment RateUSD, JPY, CHF, AUD
48UK (GBP)Manufacturing PMIUSD, CAD, JPY, EUR
49UK (GBP)Construction PMIUSD, CAD, EUR, JPY
50UK (GBP)Services PMIUSD, CAD, EUR, JPY
51UK (GBP)Halifax HPI m/mUSD, JPY, EUR
52UK (GBP)Manufacturing Production m/mUSD, CAD, JPY, CHF, NZD
53UK (GBP)CPI y/yUSD, CAD, JPY, EUR
54UK (GBP)Bank of England (BOE) Governor SpeechUSD, CAD, JPY, EUR, CHF
55UK (GBP)Retail Sales m/mUSD, CAD, JPY
56UK (GBP)Claimant Count ChangeUSD, CAD, EUR, JPY
57UK (GBP)MPC Asset Purchase Facility VotesUSD, CAD, EUR, JPY
58UK (GBP)MPC Official Bank Rate VotesUSD, CAD, EUR, JPY
59UK (GBP)Unemployment RateUSD, CAD, JPY, EUR, CHF
60UK (GBP)Prelim GDP q/qUSD, CAD, JPY, CHF
61UK (GBP)Bank of England (BOE) Inflation ReportUSD, CAD, JPY, EUR, CHF
62USA (USD)Unemployment ClaimsEUR, JPY, NZD, AUD, CAD
63USA (USD)ISM Manufacturing PMIEUR, JPY, NZD, AUD, CAD
64USA (USD)Fed Chairman Bernanke SpeaksJPY, NZD, EUR, GBP, AUD
65USA (USD)FOMC StatementJPY, NZD, EUR, GBP,
66USA (USD)ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIEUR, JPY, NZD
67USA (USD)Trade BalanceJPY, NZD, EUR
68USA (USD)ADP Non-Farm Employment ChangeJPY, NZD, EUR, AUD, CAD, GOLD, CHF
69USA (USD)Unemployment ClaimsJPY, NZD, GBP, EUR, AUD, CAD, GOLD, CHF
70USA (USD)Non-Farm Employment ChangeJPY, NZD, GBP, EUR, AUD, CAD, GOLD, CHF
71USA (USD)Unemployment RateJPY, NZD, EUR, AUD, CAD, GOLD, CHF
72USA (USD)Core Retail Sales m/mJPY, NZD, GBP, EUR, AUD, CAD, GOLD, CHF
73USA (USD)Retail Sales m/mJPY, NZD, GBP, EUR, AUD, CAD, GOLD, CHF
74USA (USD)PPI m/mJPY, NZD, EUR
75USA (USD)Core PPI m/mJPY, NZD, EUR, CAD
76USA (USD)Core CPI m/mJPY, NZD, EUR, AUD, CAD, GOLD, CHF
77USA (USD)Fed Chairman (Bernanke) SpeechJPY, NZD, GBP, EUR, AUD, CAD, GOLD, CHF
78USA (USD)Existing Home SalesJPY, NZD, EUR, GBP
79USA (USD)New Home SalesJPY, NZD, EUR, GBP, CAD
80USA (USD)Core Durable Goods Orders m/mEUR, NZD, JPY, AUD
81USA (USD)Durable Goods Orders m/mEUR, NZD, AUD
82USA (USD)Pending Home Sales m/mEUR, JPY, NZD
83USA (USD)Federal Reserve Chairman Statement JPY, NZD, GBP, EUR, AUD, CAD, GOLD, CHF



HotForex BonusDownload this sheet to your computer. 




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RISK DISCLAIMER NOTICE: News Trading is associated with extreme volatility, which has the capacity to cause undesired effects on your account. The outcome from news release cannot be fully predicted, and released figures are sometimes subjected to reviews without notice. The negative effect of this is capable of causing huge draw down in your account in a split of seconds especially when you over leverage. There are strong possibilities that certain unexpected change in some economic factors could cause strange behaviour on currency pairs hence FXTradeCity would not be held liable for any undesired results arising from the decisions taken by you when applying these recommendations. Please use Stop Loss, seek further financial advice, and apply best discretion always.

How I Trade The News (Tools, Setup, Source) - Part 2

In the previous part i outlined some basic facts about News Trading, and the major currencies/investments that attracts investors, which drives the market.

This section reveals step by step guide on how i trade the news with sample illustrations. The first step is the introduction of some vital materials i use.

1st Step: Setup Materials
The charts below illustrates some tools i used to setup my chart to get prepared for news release.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2cGd02M-NmRSnJ5Y2VreHlXNmc/edit?usp=sharing
 Click image to enlarge...


https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2cGd02M-NmRZy1QaEExVVFvQms/edit?usp=sharing
 Click image to enlarge...

The 1st picture shows a sample of my chart setup containing some tools that alerts me when a news is about to be released at a specified time configured by me. It also keeps me informed of upcoming and past news events. The setup also contains a dynamic Support & Resistance Indicator as well as a dynamic Pivot Point, which acts as a guide to help me study the psychology of the market and to locate the best places to place orders. The One Click Trading
One Click Trading
tool is also part of the chart setup. I use it to place quick order(s) during a quick counter retracement or to trade spike trade reversals.


Download My Trade Setup Indicators Here: https://docs.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B2cGd02M-NmRV3ZBckc5ajdjVEE


Titans


The 2nd chart is a little different from the the 1st chart only for the news economic tool which displays the actual release on the chart. However the release is not as fast as other 3rd party news engine sources, so i rarely use it.

Other important resources:
1. Forex Factory
2. My personal News Calender on my blog.
3. Henry Liu's pre-news analysis
4. News Trading EAs (I seldom use them)
5. Cable/Satelite Network (for live speeches, press release, interviews, e.t.c.)

2nd Step: Get Pre-News Release Schedule 
I get this weekly from several sources to get me prepared adequately. When reviewing the news calendar or schedule for the week I put more interest on the impact and the time schedule. Getting this information on a Sunday before the beginning of the working week is the best. It helps me to plan adequately for the week or days ahead most especially for midnight news release due to my geographic location.
Apparently there are far lesser economic activities on Sundays around the World except in some Asian Markets.
Lookout for daily analysis of the news release hours or if possible a day before. Henry Liu's pre news analysis is one of the best i can recommend. Apart from analyzing the expectations of the news release, they offer trade guidelines on the best pairs to trade.   

High impact news are the best to trade. However their impact is still subject to amount of data released. So not all of them could be profitable. Therefore take the advise or guidelines of pre-news analysis from experts seriously.


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3rd Step: Watch For Signs Prior To The News Release
Watch out for certain market signs that indicates the likeliness of a possible high impact or apparent closeness to a news release. See some of the signs below:

- Narrow price movement extending for hours before the news release.
       

    - Pre-news reaction. In some cases there is a slight or consistent push in the market arising from traders sentiments towards the expected outcome of the news release. Be very careful with this sign. It's most often seen with an engulfing candle pattern.


    - A very slow or an abrupt halt in the market movement. It is what i call the market quiet time. This sign means the market participants (i.e. bulls/bears) are waiting earnestly or holding back for an important information, which would decide the long or short term direction of the market. It's one of the major positive sign of an upcoming news release with a very high impact. This sign helps me to detect which pairs are likely going to have a greater impact.

    - Inconsistent and continuous series of candle patterns (doji's, hammers, inverted hammers, kickers, e.t.c.). The inconsistent candle patterns is a display of the irrational reaction of the market to an upcoming news release.

     
    4th Step: Place Orders
    100% BonusThis should be done systematically. You need to understand the signs, and market behavior before placing orders. There are cases where your orders would be triggered at the wrong time due to what i call tremor of the market (i.e. mini shocks before the real impact). So placing of orders is a dynamic thing. It might require constant modification until the news release.

    News release accounts for a higher percentage of market volatility, and hence can cause irrational price feed lags, which results to error messages such as "Trade Context Busy", "Invalid SL/TP", "Requote", platform hang, e.t.c. More often traders blame their brokers for this but it is not entirely their fault. The steps presented here reveals a way out of this problem.

    In the final part we will learn which pairs are the best to trade for a particular news release, and how to place orders and manage them.

    Meanwhile i recommend looking up on our article: Forex Currency Pairs & How They Relate.

    Watch out for Part 3.


    Image (News Dice) courtesy of Stuart Miles / FreeDigitalPhotos.net